There is a lot of debate ongoing about failure of vaccine strategy by Government, shortage of vaccine, how Indian Government failed etc. I want to dig into some facts around vaccines now.
Is there a vaccine shortage? — Yes there is a vaccine shortage. If 1 billion people queue to take vaccines same day or same week or same month, no force in the world can meet that humungous number. Unlike previous vaccine drives be it polio, cholera or TB we had a long run way to complete the vaccination, Covid gives us no luxury of time, so either people have to stay safe or get vaccinated. Today after the 2nd wave everyone wants to get vaccinated and everyone wanted it to be done yesterday.
Let’s see how India stands today (May-15) in terms of vaccination (at least one dose)
US has administered 53% means close to 150M people have received at least one dose. Germany has 29.3M people covered, UK has 36M, France has 19M. Japan (not shown in chart) has jabbed just 3M people till now. India has jabbed 138M people (or 13 crores). As per Ministry of Health affairs data actual number as of today is 18 crores. India was the fastest country to reach 100M mark.
So let that data sink in. We have done well in terms of vaccinating people and vaccinating fast. Remind you there are scores of countries who have not even been touched by vaccination till now and the most developed nations are going like laggards.
Now people question GoI should have anticipated 2nd wave and build capacity by now to produce billion vaccines. Yes it is good to set ambitious goals and keep our government accountable for that numbers. But remember we are not talking about building a soap factory which produces a billion soaps. If vaccine manufacturing was so easy Japan, Germany and many other countries should have been producing tonnes of vaccine by now and profiting from them. Alas! vaccine involves IP, it involves world class facility, qualified and trained people, a complex supply chain and this cannot be setup in a quarter or year. Even US did not setup a vaccine factory after Corona outbreak in to manufacture and sell vaccines. They are importing vaccines with their $ power.
India is in a better position compared to many European nations. Today we are two vaccines manufactured in India Covid Shield & Covaxin. The coming months will see — Bio E (J&J vaccine), Sputnik (Reddy’s lab), Zydus Cadila (ZyCov-D vaccine, indigenous), BB Nasal vaccine (indigenous), Gennova mRNA vaccine (indigenous), Novavax (SII) adding to vaccine kitty of India.
The temporary blip seen now is short-term, by July it is estimated 300M or 30Cr people would have completed their vaccines. And in paper this is how the supply side of things looks for this year
So as per the above estimate India would have completed vaccination by this year end. Which is 2,000,000,000 vaccine does administered in a span of year. Even if we achieve 60%–70% of the above number, we will romp home safe with herd immunity.
We should also look at what the Government has done till now to be optimistic that the above haloed plan would bear some fruition. Here is a timeline of things which happened over last one year
Apr-2020 Adar Poonawala came on record saying decks are cleared for vaccine manufacturers to develop & roll out vaccines in India. Link here.
May-2020 Adar Poonawala declares India will have made-in-India vaccine due to speedy approvals. Link here.
Jun-2020 India starts creating tech platform for booking and tracking vaccination drive. Link here.
Jun-2020 SII signs up deal with Astra Zeneca to manufacture vaccine in India. At this point vaccine is not yet approved. SII takes a risk by investing on unproven technology
Aug-2020 National Expert Group on Vaccine Administration setup under leadership of Dr. Paul
Oct-2020/Nov-2020 Reviews & preparations for vaccines were in full swing. Links here & here
Dec-2020 Six vaccines were under going clinical trials in India. Link here
Dec-2020 2 Vaccines approved for emergency use (Covaxin & Covid Shield)
12-Jan-2021 First shipments out of Serum Institute (Link here)
16-Jan-2021 India starts vaccination drive
As of today 18 crore doses are done. Our vaccination drive till now also shows sluggish uptake till April thanks to laxity from public, and a sudden uptick after 2nd wave hit.
System is struggling today with shortage of supplies. But given the robust pipeline, I believe we will be on track in next one to two months. In fact if we achieve out goals it would be the best & efficient vaccination drive to have happened in the world.
The people who are crying most for vaccine shortages are NRIs, people who are sitting at comfy of work from homes. When we are going through this unprecedented situation, best thing would be for at least those who can afford to work from home earn their bread and who are healthy is to stay home, stay safe, don’t get infected and if you get infected take care not to spread it.
Personally I have decided to wait for vaccine to be available in private sector to take my jab. People on the street be it drivers, hawkers, security guards, and umpteen others who need to step out to make their ends meet should be given first chance for the jab.
There are a lot of hindsight journalists who are now talking about second wave, how government missed it etc., but the matter of fact is that no one predicted the scale or date of second wave until it happened. In fact on the contrary prominent journalists were projecting the opposite like this, even science journals were talking about end of corona in January. I had written about Creeping Determinism espoused by our hindsight spokespersons and hypocritical mirror holders of the society.
It’s time to stay home, stay safe and wait for your jab.
